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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete deep left (21-M.Hilton).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.17 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -0.14 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.86 EP