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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 77-D.Faalele and 65-P.Mekari reported in as eligible. 2-T.Huntley right tackle to CIN 33 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.47 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model