4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 4-D.Chrisman punts 53 yards to BAL 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-J.Proche to BAL 19 for 10 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model