4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 79

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 7-B.Mann punts 61 yards to MIA 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.56 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP