Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 42

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to MIA 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -2.49 EP

KICK -0.81 EP

47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
53% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model