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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 32

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:23) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.15 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model