Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 6

(4:59) 4-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to NYJ 19, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 28 for 9 yards (20-J.Bethel, 44-B.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.30 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model