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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 4-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to NYJ 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP