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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 17

New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.90 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model