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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass incomplete short right [52-J.Johnson].

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.68 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model