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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.31 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +1.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model