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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 41

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson right end pushed ob at NYJ 33 for 8 yards (22-T.Adams; 57-C.Mosley).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +4.19 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.81 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth +0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model