4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 7-B.Mann punts 57 yards to MIA 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP