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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 29

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Field Goal formation) 6-J.Gillan sacked at PHI 40 for -11 yards (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP