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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 27
New York Giants 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 22
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 12-D.Webb up the middle to PHI 25 for 2 yards (97-J.Hargrave).
The Three Options
GO
+2.24 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.49 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -0.34 EP
KICK
+2.06 EP
- 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
- 19% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
