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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 13-B.Kern punts 29 yards to NYG 41, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-53-C.Elliss.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model