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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(:53) 9-G.Gano 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model