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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 14, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model