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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 65

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 6-J.Gillan punts 37 yards to PHI 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model