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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 81

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey ran ob at NYG 49 for 16 yards (21-L.Collins). PENALTY on NYG-21-L.Collins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.88 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model