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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to NE 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 26 for no gain (25-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.27 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model