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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 36

New England Patriots 17 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 16-J.Meyers pushed ob at BUF 26 for 10 yards (27-T.White).

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model