4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 47

New England Patriots 17 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 17-M.Palardy punts 28 yards to BUF 19, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model