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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 18

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model