Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(5:11) 11-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to SEA 31, Center-42-M.Orzech. 31-D.Dallas to LA 49 for 20 yards (37-Q.Lake).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model