4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.45 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -2.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model