4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LA 26, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-B.Powell to LA 35 for 9 yards (38-G.Igwebuike).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.30 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model