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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 4, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP