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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to LA 13, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.87 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 61, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 20, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP