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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 47

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 11-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.45 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model