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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 86-F.Swain to DEN 13 for no gain (33-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (33-D.Leonard), recovered by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at DEN 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model