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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 2 at the 34
Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7
What Actually Happened
(7:58) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to LAC 32 for 2 yards (8-K.Van Noy).
The Three Options
GO
+1.69 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.09 EP
- 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.18 EP
KICK
+1.18 EP
- 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT
+0.35 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
