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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Denver Broncos 31

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 89-B.Johnson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-32-A.Gilman at DEN 29.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP