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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 55

Denver Broncos 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model