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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:31) 15-C.Dicker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.37 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model