Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 75

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

(1:18) 17-C.Waitman punts 38 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.16 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model