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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model