Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to PIT 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 32. 82-S.Sims to PIT 32 for no gain (37-D.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model