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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 16

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.50 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model