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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-J.Darden to CLE 29 for 5 yards (37-E.Riley).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.85 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model