Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(1:44) 14-A.Lee punts 53 yards to SF 16, Center-48-H.Bradley. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 30 for 14 yards (51-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model