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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:26) (No Huddle) 17-D.Blough up the middle to ARI 39 for no gain (50-M.Dwumfour).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model