4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to ARI 23, Center-46-T.Pepper. 15-P.Cooper to ARI 30 for 7 yards (24-J.Mason).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model