Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(9:18) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to SF 30, Center-48-H.Bradley. 3-R.McCloud to SF 38 for 8 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model