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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 38 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(:33) 32-T.Davis-Price left tackle to ARI 7 for 3 yards (51-T.Vallejo; 9-I.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP