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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 38 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to ARI 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-6-D.Gray.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.16 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP