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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to MIA 36 for 2 yards (91-D.Wise).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model