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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 19-S.Thompson pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to NE 31 for 17 yards (23-K.Dugger).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.53 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model