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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 29

New England Patriots 23 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at MIA 39 for -10 yards (92-Z.Sieler).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.85 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP