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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 58

New England Patriots 16 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 17-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Addington, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model